Validation and Comparative Assessment of Empirical Models for Solar Energy Prediction on Inclined Planes: A Case Study in Ghardaïa, Algeria

Abderraouf Bouramdane, Mohammed Lakhdar Louazene, Abdelkader Benmir

Abstract

Accurate solar energy irradiation data are essential for the design, optimization, and performance evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Given the frequent scarcity of high-resolution ground-measured data, reliable estimation techniques are critical. This study validates and compares the empirical models of Perrin de Brichambaut and Capderou for predicting global solar irradiation on an inclined plane, using a case study at the OUED-NECHOU Photovoltaic Center in Ghardaïa, Algeria. The analysis utilizes high-resolution experimental measurements recorded at 4-minute intervals under clear-sky conditions on the 15th of four representative months in 2023 (January, May, July, and October). Furthermore, the influence of meteorological variables, such as relative humidity and wind speed, on irradiation variability is assessed. Model reliability is evaluated through a robust statistical framework, including Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Correlation Coefficient (CC), supplemented by temporal absolute error (AE) analysis. The results indicate that while both models provide acceptable estimations of global solar energy irradiance, the Perrin de Brichambaut model consistently demonstrates superior performance compared to the Capderou model. This is confirmed by high correlation coefficients (CC) ranging from 0.89 to 0.96 and lower RMSE values (4.77 to 7.02 W/m²), highlighting the model's suitability for enhancing photovoltaic system planning in Saharan climates.

Keywords

Solar irradiation; Perrin de Brichambau; Capderou; Photovoltaic systems; Meteorological data analysis; Performance evaluation metrics.

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References

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.47238/ijeca.v11i1.317

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